Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — June 10, 2026

Team Gill • June 10, 2026

The Bank of Canada announced today that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. For Canadian homeowners, buyers, and anyone with a mortgage on the horizon — here's what you need to know.

What the Bank of Canada Said

The Global Picture

The conflict in the Middle East is now in its fourth month. Higher energy prices and disruptions to global supply chains continue to weigh on economic growth worldwide and push inflation higher. At the same time, U.S. trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, with new tariff proposals continuing to create uncertainty for Canadian businesses and exporters.

In the U.S., economic growth remains solid, supported by consumer spending and AI-related investment. In the euro area, growth is subdued. China continues to benefit from strong exports. Canadian financial conditions have loosened somewhat since the April Monetary Policy Report — global equity markets have been buoyant, though bond yields remain volatile. The Canadian dollar has weakened against the U.S. dollar and other currencies.

The Canadian Economy

Canada's GDP edged down by 0.1% in the first quarter — weaker than the Bank had expected. Consumer spending grew 1.4%, but government spending unexpectedly declined. Housing activity also fell, business investment remained weak, exports dropped, and imports rose strongly as inventories were rebuilt.

On the jobs front, employment was up in May — but looking past monthly swings, employment in Canada has been little changed since the start of the year. The unemployment rate continues to hover in the 6.5%–7% range, with the most recent reading at 6.6% in May.

The good news: the Bank expects growth to resume in the second quarter. But even with a rebound, the economy is expected to remain in excess supply for the near term.

Inflation

CPI inflation rose to 2.8% in April, as expected. The increase reflects higher energy prices and the impact of the consumer carbon tax elimination falling out of the 12-month calculation. Importantly, there has been limited evidence so far of that energy price increase spreading broadly into other consumer prices.

Core inflation measures have moved down to around 2%, and the share of CPI components growing above 3% is now close to its historical average — both positive signs. Food price inflation moderated but remains high. Shelter inflation continued to slow.

With global oil prices still roughly $10 per barrel above the Bank's April assumptions, total inflation is expected to hover around 3% in the near term before gradually easing back toward 2%.

Why the Bank Held

The Bank's Governing Council chose to hold at 2.25%, citing weak economic activity in Canada, persistent U.S. trade policy uncertainty, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The Bank is continuing to "look through" the war's near-term impact on headline inflation — but has made clear it will not allow higher energy prices to become persistent inflation. The Bank stands ready to respond as the outlook evolves.

What This Means for Mortgage Holders and Buyers

A rate hold means no immediate change to variable-rate mortgage payments or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) tied to the prime rate. The prime rate remains at 4.45%.

The broader message from today's decision is one of patience and watchfulness. Canada's economy is soft, inflation is being driven largely by energy prices rather than broad demand, and the Bank is in a careful holding pattern. This environment doesn't signal imminent rate hikes — but it also doesn't yet open the door to cuts.

For anyone renewing a mortgage, considering a purchase, or weighing fixed vs. variable options, the decisions you make over the next few months matter. A thoughtful conversation with your mortgage professional now can make a real difference.

The next scheduled rate announcement is July 15, 2026 .

As always, every borrower's situation is unique. If you have questions about how today's decision affects your mortgage — reach out. I'm here to help you make sense of it.

Information sourced from the Bank of Canada's official press release dated June 10, 2026.

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Mick & Sheila Gill
CANADIAN MORTGAGE EXPERTS
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